Today’s Strategic Alignment Journal post in two sentences:

A conclusion can feel certain simply because the logic leading to it makes sense. But if the starting premise is wrong, perfectly reasonable thinking can still lead us in the wrong direction.

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Sometimes the problem is not the decision we make. It is the certainty we develop about the thinking that led us there.

Most of us are not consciously walking around constructing syllogisms, but we do something very similar every day. Something happens, we decide what it means, that meaning becomes a premise and the premise leads us toward a conclusion. Once the reasoning makes sense, the conclusion can begin to feel certain. That is where the blindspot begins.

Sales are falling, so the sales team must be underperforming and therefore the sales team needs training. It sounds logical, but only if the first conclusion is right. What if sales are falling because the market has changed? What if customers no longer want what we are selling? What if the problem is pricing, positioning or the product itself? The logic can be flawless from the wrong starting point.

We do this all the time. Staff are disengaged, so managers need leadership training. Customers are leaving, so customer service needs fixing. People are resisting a change, so they need more communication. Sometimes those conclusions are right. Sometimes they are simply the first explanation that made enough sense for us to stop looking.

And that is where logic develops a blindspot. Once an explanation feels reasonable, we can stop questioning the premise that produced it.

An assumption rarely introduces itself by saying, I am an assumption. It sounds much more certain than that. People don’t understand. The team lacks motivation. We need more visibility. Communication is the problem. Once one of those statements becomes accepted as fact, everything that follows can appear perfectly reasonable.

So we train. We communicate. We restructure. We market. We invest. And when nothing changes, we start wondering why the solution did not work.

Sometimes the answer is simple. We started solving too far downstream.

Before asking what should be done, there is another question worth asking: What have we already decided is true?

Every proposed solution carries an assumption about the problem.

Training assumes there is a capability gap. More communication assumes people do not understand. More marketing assumes people do not know about us. New technology assumes the existing tools are holding us back. None of those assumptions is inherently wrong, but none should become certainty simply because the logic that follows sounds convincing.

The real danger is not faulty logic. It is the confidence that logic can give us when the premise has never been tested. Before we commit time, money or people to a solution, it is worth going back to the beginning and asking whether the thing we are most certain about is actually true.

Strategic Reflection Prompt

What problem are you already certain you understand, and what assumption have you never tested because the conclusion made too much sense?

About Giselle

Most costly decisions begin with a wrong read of the situation.

I’m Giselle Hudson — The Pre-Fixer. I help leaders see the real problem before they act, in my writing and in my work. I don’t fix; I pre-fix. Most advisers jump to solutions before they’ve found the real problem. I find it first — the part that isn’t fully visible yet. Once we see that clearly, everything else falls into place, and confident, right action can follow.

Through my daily Strategic Alignment Journal, I explore leadership, decision-making, and the patterns that shape organizations — helping leaders make sense of complexity before they commit significant time and money to the wrong thing.

What’s the one thing about your business that frustrates you most — the thing that, despite your best efforts, you can’t seem to resolve?